1 in 6 Texas voters remain unaffiliated and undecided ahead of November

A Texas 2036 poll released Sept. 22 finds 16.7% of registered Texas voters are both unaffiliated and undecided just weeks before the November general election, while only about half plan to vote strictly for one party. Education, affordability and infrastructure issues are emerging as the clearest points of agreement across party lines.

Why it matters: - Texas voters are heading into the final stretch of the 2026 campaign with more openness to split tickets than in a typical partisan election. - Education outcomes, affordability, electricity and water issues are the clearest cross-party opening for candidates trying to win over unaffiliated and undecided voters. - Concern about Texas’ future is rising, adding pressure on candidates to offer concrete plans rather than broad messaging.

What happened: - Texas 2036 released its 10th Texas Voter Poll on Sept. 22, 2026. - The poll found 16.7% of Texas voters fit Texas 2036’s definition of “Unaffiliated and Undecided.” - Only about half of voters say they plan to vote exclusively for candidates from one party. - Among voters overall, 26% plan to vote only for Republican candidates and 24% only for Democratic candidates. - Just 34% of voters say they are fully decided about their November choices. - Another 37% say they are mostly decided, while 21% are mostly or fully undecided. - John Hryhorchuk, senior vice president for policy and advocacy at Texas 2036, said a meaningful share of Texas voters is still weighing choices across their ballots.

The details: - Texas 2036 defined “Unaffiliated and Undecided” as voters who are mostly or fully undecided about their November choices and are not committed partisans based on past voting behavior and views of the parties. - Among that group, 38% expect to vote for a mix of candidates across parties. - Another 24% are unsure how they will vote. - Only about one in seven currently plans to vote exclusively for one party. - The poll tested voter reactions to 13 policy positions a candidate might hold. - The strongest support went to ensuring students read and do math at grade level, at 85%. - Reducing healthcare prices drew 83% support. - Preparing high school graduates for college or a career drew 83% support. - Reducing electricity bills drew 82% support. - Building needed water infrastructure drew 81% support. - Reducing homeowners’ insurance costs drew 79% support. - Unailiated and undecided voters ranked those issues in largely the same order as the electorate overall. - Childcare and public education funding ranked somewhat higher among unaffiliated and undecided voters. - Border security, crime and some affordability issues ranked lower among that group. - Tracy Ayrhart, vice president of data and research at Texas 2036, said the remaining unaffiliated and undecided voters do not appear to care about a fundamentally different set of issues. - About two-thirds of voters, or 68%, say they are extremely or very concerned about the future of Texas. - That is one of the highest levels recorded across the 10 Texas Voter Polls conducted since 2020. - The 68% includes a record 85% of Democrats and 58% of Republicans. - Concern among GOP voters rose 15 percentage points year over year. - In a split sample, 39% said Texas is taking the proper actions today to ensure it will be the best state in which to live, work and raise a family in 20 years. - That compares with 53% on a similar question in 2020. - Overall, 57% of voters expect the Texas economy to outperform the rest of the country over the next four years. - Nearly 80% of Republicans expect Texas to have a stronger economy than the nation over the next four years. - About 32% of Democrats share that view. - David Leebron, president and CEO of Texas 2036, said Texans across the political spectrum want students reading and doing math at grade level, affordable healthcare, and more water and electricity infrastructure. - Full results and analysis are available at the polling data. - The poll was conducted Aug. 22-26, 2026, by Baselice & Associates for Texas 2036. - It included 1,369 completed interviews with registered Texas voters. - Results were weighted to represent registered Texas voters statewide. - The effective sample size after weighting was 1,001. - The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Between the lines: - The poll suggests Texas voters are not locked into partisan camps as strongly as headline numbers might imply. - The strongest issue consensus sits on practical household concerns, not ideological flashpoints. - The gap between concern about Texas’ future and confidence in state readiness leaves room for candidates who offer specific problem-solving plans.

What's next: - Campaigns are likely to keep leaning on education, affordability and infrastructure as they try to reach persuadable voters before November. - The unaffiliated and undecided bloc remains a meaningful target for candidates seeking to shape split-ticket voting. - Texas 2036’s polling data will continue to frame debates about the state’s long-term economic and infrastructure needs.